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Reds should look to trade for pitching Print E-mail
Written by Brian J. Corbin   
Wednesday, 05 December 2007

The annual Major League Baseball Winter Meetings kick off this week in Nashville, TN.

Baseball executives meet for three days to discuss the state of the game, possible rule changes (like implementing video replay) off-season player trades and free agent signings.

This year's gathering of baseball's executives look to actually be a lively one for the trade market compared to the last few years, due to the Johan Santana sweepstakes.

Of course, if Alex Rodriguez had not crawled back to the Yankees, this may have been the most interesting winter break in baseball history.

This gathering of professional baseball personnel also includes a baseball trade show, minor league meetings and the rule five draft.

Plus, the meetings offer a gathering place for aspiring front office workers, general managers, mascots and broadcasters.

As far as this year's meetings, I believe the Reds will entertain many offers for player trades. One reason is that a few million dollars come off the Cincinnati books with the departure of Eric Milton's three-year, $25.5 million contract. Plus, $5 million more dollars are made available as the team payed off salary commitments to former Reds Rheal Cormier and Jason LaRue.

Obviously, this contributed to the early addition of closer Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46 million contract. By luring Cordero to Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati has already patched its most glaring weakness, the lack of a true closer.

Despite David Weathers' 33 saves in 2007, this old right-hander is better suited for a set-up role on a team that gave up 123 eighth inning runs. Not to mention, as a team in 2007 the Reds converted just 34 of 61 saves opportunities.

Cordero brings instant credibility to the closer position for the Reds. Having spent last season shutting the door in Milwaukee (he saved 44 of 51 chances), he's familiar with the divisional opponents and his rubber arm (he averages about 63-plus innings of work throughout his career) makes him available to close night after night.

I'm already hearing complaints about Cordero's price tag, but I like the addition of this two-time All-Star. It's a large sum of money for a 32-year-old, but if the Reds want to compete in this rich man's league they'll have to pay the steep price.

The next most popular discussion for Reds fans is whether or not to trade Ken Griffey Jr. for pitching.

Honestly, with Junior's health issues I don't believe the Reds will get an equally talented hurler in return for Griffey whether they trade him this off-season or in July. However, this doesn't mean the off-season won't bring a worthwhile deal (though nothing has been discussed) for Junior and the Reds.

{mosimage}On the other hand, pitching help is usually desired more at the trading deadline than hitting help. Thus, the Reds will get more in return for Griffey by trading him this winter. My guess however, the Reds won't pull the trigger to trade this future Hall of Famer.

With one year remaining on Griffey's contract (12.5 million for 2008) the Reds should keep Junior until he breaks 600 career (currently sitting at 593 HR) homeruns. Let's hope he'll reach the mark by the July 31st trade deadline, so the front office can dangle Junior to an AL team where he'll have an opportunity to finish his career as a DH. Seattle still seems like a strong possibility.

Here's another reason I'd like to see Griffey finish his career as a Red.

Whether Griffey's back in right field or not, center field is still an issue for this club.

• Should an opportunity to trade outfielder Ryan Freel come up, let's hope the Reds make a deal with Atlanta who is looking to replace Andruw Jones. The talented prospects in the Braves' historically good farm system make the right trade lucrative for Cincinnati.

Freel, is a more of a fan-favorite than a strong major league centerfielder (a disappointing .301 on-base percentage in 2007). Sure, it's always convenient to have a utility player, but simply put, the Reds have more talented outfielders than Freel.

Consider that the Reds have Josh Hamilton, Norris Hopper (.371 on-base percentage in 2007) and a top minor league prospect to play the outfield in Jay Bruce, and it becomes clear that Freel is expendable for pitching help.

This is especially true when evaluating a 2007 bullpen that posted a 23-31 record and a league-high 5.13 ERA in 2007.

• It's also imperative the Reds get a long term deal done with second baseman Brandon Phillips. Phillips' boyhood idol was former Reds great Barry Larkin, and he has stated that he wants to stay a Red. Cincinnati better tie the knot with Phillips before it's too late.

B Phillips

New York's Newsday Paper seems to think Edwin Encarnacion could be on the trading block. Despite Encarnacion's early struggles both at the plate and in the field, I still think he's going to develop into a stellar third baseman.

• I've stated many times that I think the Reds can get more by trading Adam Dunn sooner than later. However, team owner Bob Castellini has a soft spot for Dunn (Adam's 2008 option was picked up for 13 million) and it appears Dunn will be around for a little while longer.

Besides, Dunn's current one-year deal allows him to nix any trade until the month of June. So, there goes trading the Big Donkey before Christmas.

• When it's all said and done, this is the lineup I want to see on the field for Cincinnati on Opening Day 2008:

CF Norris Hopper (Played in 121 games, posted a .329 batting average)
LF Josh Hamilton (Played in only 90 games due to injuries)
RF Ken Griffey Jr. (May have already played his last game as a Red)
2B Brandon Phillips (His .990 fielding average was the highest in the NL last year)
3B Edwin Encarnacion (I won't be surprised if he's dealt this winter)
SS Jeff Keppinger (Just needs a place to play everyday)
C Jose Valintine (2008 will be his first year as a number one catcher)
1B Joey Votto (There are high hopes for this disciplined hitter)

Here's the lineup I expect from Dusty Baker on Opening Day 2008:

1B Scott Hatteberg
CF Josh Hamilton
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
LF Adam Dunn
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Edwin Encarnacion
SS Alex Gonzalez
C Jose Valintine

Here's some thoughts on the starting pitching:

Aaron Harang R (The most underappreciated starting pitcher in baseball)
Bronson Arroyo R (I still think he wants to play for Boston)
Homer Bailey R (His time to shine is in 2008)
Matt Belisle R (Serviceable, but he's more of a number five starter)
Bobby Livingston L (He's a number five guy at best)

Here's how I rank the bullpen right-handers from top to bottom:

Jared Burton R (Was outstanding during the season's second half)
Brad Salmon R (Still has to prove his keep on the MLB roster)
Gary Mejewski R (Arm problems bothered him for most of the season)
Todd Coffey R (Made a 180 degree turn in the wrong direction from 2006)
Marcus McBeth R (Could turn into a solid set-up man)
Darly Thomson R (Florida State League: went 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA in August)
Richie Gardner R (Sarasota: went 9-5 with a 3.77 ERA in 22 starts)
Ramon Ramirez R (Chattanooga: went 5-1 with a 4.60 ERA)

My rankings of left-handers in the bullpen from top to bottom:

Bill Bray L (Could be the team's southpaw set-up man)
Jon Coutlangus L (Probably will bounce between Cincinnati and Louisville)
Tyler Pelland L (Double-A: 98 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings)
Alexander Smit L (Louisville: thrived out of the bullpen with a 3.04 ERA)
Mike Stanton L (Should have retired before last year, 5.93 ERA in 2007)

Setup - David Weathers, R (will do well setting up Cordero)

Closer - Francisco Cordero, R (Wow! $46 million to close)

Notes from the back burner

The new field general in Cincinnati, Dusty Baker, has decided to keep Brook Jacoby as the team's hitting coach.

As a team, the Reds' lineup improved its batting average by 10 points (.267 compared to .257) from 2006 under the instruction of former batting coach Chris Chambliss.

Better yet, with runners in scoring position the Reds average jumped 19 points higher (.263 compared to .244) than the 2006 season.

However, the Reds 12-year playoff drought has more to do with the team's pitching troubles than runs scored.

Although, statistically it appears to make sense that Baker would welcome back Jacoby for a second season, inviting pitching coach Dick Pole back is a head scratcher.

Under Pole's watch the Reds team ERA jumped from 4.51 in 2006 to 4.94 in 2007. Worse, the bullpen's ERA was dead last in the National League at 5.13.

The skinny, Pole was Bakers pitching coach in Chicago from 2003-2006.
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