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Another Take Regarding The Upsets Print E-mail
Written by JEH45   
Tuesday, 02 October 2007
{mosimage}Bugeatersteve & Lloyds have shared with you their thoughts regarding the landscape of upsets. Now I'm going to give you my view. As a caveat I will tell you upfront I have done zip statistical study to back up anything I am about to say. Upsets-Why?

1. The football bounces funny.

2. We listen to the "experts". I mean really, if you had vastly superior knowledge would you be telling us this stuff or would you be in Vegas? Matter of fact, if the gaming public actually listened to the talking heads with such superior knowledge, wouldn't we have bankrupted Vegas by now?

3. Our teams play creampuffs. Use Penn State as an example. Who have they beaten? Whoever the hell they were I guess they looked pretty good doing it-then they play Michigan and Illinois and don't look so good anymore. The examples go on and on. Who has West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers beaten? Hell yes ESPN has been hyping those teams. Who do you think broadcasts those Thursday night games. By the way, I will include my team in the playing creampuff category. That is why I believe the jury is still out on the quality of my Ohio State Buckeyes. We play undefeated Purdue this weekend. When we win, I still won't be sure as to what we have because who the hell has Purdue played this year? Again, we could go on and on. Is the Virginia Tech team LSU beat an elite team?

4. Some teams and/or some coaches can't either matchup or scheme against certain styles. Hasn't Michigan proved to you that they can't stop a spread offense with a mobile quarterback? I mean would you bet on Michigan tonight if they were playing a spread offense with a mobile QB? Again, I do not know if it is players or coaches, but the results speak for themselves.

5. Some teams and/or coaches matchup with other teams and can scheme successfully. Familiarity plays a role here as many of the upsets and near upsets involved league matchups. Didn't it appear to you that Auburn has the scheme to slow down the Tebow/Harvin/Florida offense? On that subject, I would imagine the tape of that game is being dissected around the SEC. Did it appear to you that South Florida had the speed, the athletes, and the discipline to contain West Virginia?

6. Some teams lack the balance to be an elite team. We have offense, defense, and special teams. On offense, we have the running game and the passing game. In the passing game we have deep, short, backs, tight ends-get my point? Does Florida have a running attack besides Tebow? Can Louisville defense anyone? Can Notre Dame kick an extra point? If Slaton and White don't beat you, is there anyone else on West Virginia who will? I know I am of the opinion a running attack can be stopped if you put enough men in the box. A passing attack that is only a dink and dunk is doomed to fail as the linebackers and DB's begin to cheat just knowing they aren't getting burnt deep. I would add, a weakness in your team may not appear to be a weakness if the teams you are playing are even weaker.

7. Luck. California.

8. Maybe coaches aren't as smart as we are led to believe. Does anyone believe FSU was going to beat Alabama with Drew Weatherford on the field and Xavier Lee on the bench? I have always defended coaches as knowing a hell of alot more than I do, but there is no way Jimbo or Bobby could convince me that Weatherford was the answer for Alabama.

Anyhow, these are some of my thoughts. It has been fun putting them together, but I am old, need to get to bed so I can go snookin before work tomorrow. If I have offended anyone-sorry.

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Lloyds Apple said:

Speaking of playing cream puffs, I heard on ESPN tonight that Illinois is favored over #5 Wisconsin. I guess that's what happens if you look bad beating cream puffs.
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