| Week 4 NCAA Football Predictions for top 25 teams and more |
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| Written by Lloyds Apple | |
| Wednesday, 19 September 2007 | |
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{mosimage}I'm looking at the upcoming matchups and am having a tough time deciding who is going to cover or beat the spread. I've said for years that there are always a couple of games every week that I can identify as being easy bets, but this week may be an exception. Last week I was 3-1, as Ohio State, Michigan and Boston College all beat the spread, or covered it and won as I predicted. I thought Fresno State would lose to Oregon but less than was predicted, and while Oregon won, they easily covered the spread. In week 2 I predicted games on teams I had not yet seen and was going on my perceived knowledge, which in college football can mean Bo Diddily. I'll never make that rookie mistake again. I learned a valuable lesson, it's not how many games you predict, it's the percentage you predict correctly. If I predict an outcome, understand that I'm imagining I'm down to my last $100 and I need to get it right so I don't have to sleep on the streets. I read a bunch of predictions, or see guys on t.v. say stupid shit and I know that if they applied the $100 rule, they would not be so bold. Well....after further review....the hell with that, here are some predictions. Clemson Tigers (-7) VS. N.C. State This is a home game for N.C. State, who would love nothing more than a conference win against arguably the best team in the ACC, good luck with all of that. The team that is probably the best in the ACC, Boston College, whooped up on N.C. State by 20, while Clemson defeated FSU by 6 in a home to begin the season. N.C. State has also lost to UCF at home, but UCF probably has one of their best teams ever, so that's not as embarrasing as some may like to believe. Kevin Smith for UCF ran for over 200 yards against the Wolfpack, so beware of C.J. Spiller and the gang. I expect Clemson to get on top early and maintain the lead. All of this despite Clemson only winning by 6 last year at home. Clemson - 31 N.C. State - 20
Northwestern just got knocked off by one of Bugeatersteve's bottom feeders, Duke, which is a bad thing for Northwestern. Even if Duke is dramatically improved from a year ago, which I doubt, it's not a good thing. I should note I'm already breaking my rule of not betting on a team until I see them play, but what the hell. Ohio native and former diaper dandy (thanks Dickie V!) Tyrell Sutton is "probable" after an ankle injury. The game will be in 86 degree heat under a clear sky, on Ohio State's new turf, which is piping hot from what I've heard. This all points to speed, attrition and reinforcements. The Buckeyes have an advantage in all of the above and will look sharp. Don't be surprised to see Sutton and Northwestern show some guts, but OSU wins and looks like a top 10 team doing it. And yeah, they beat Washington by 18 last week, so that makes me more confident. Ohio State - 41 Northwestern - 13
Michigan State (-12 1/2) VS. Notre Dame Allow me to take a dump on the Irish. 0-3.......38-0! Damn, I'm even getting tired of it. But seriously, Michigan State just beat Pitt and looked good at times doing it. New Head Coach Mark Dantonio (who quickly restored Cincinnati after coaching for Nick Saban and Jim Tressel) will continue to improve the Spartans defense and right now I think Michigan State can beat Michigan, who just beat Notre Dame 38-0. Notre Dame can't stop the run and MSU has 2 good-to-great backs. Notre Dame does finally show a pulse on offense, briefly. Michigan State - 31 Notre Dame - 13
Purdue VS. Minnesota Purdue is 12 1/2 point favorites, which should be easy. I think Purdue wins by 3 touchdowns, as this is a major transition/disciplinary year for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers of course were never happy with their old coach, Glenn Mason, who was too good for Minnesota. The problem is, he knew it and always sought after other jobs. Purdue by 3 touchdowns. People will ask again, how good is Purdue? Georgia VS. Alabama (-3/12) Bama by 10. As onearmedbandit says, "Georgia will be seeing red". Roll Tide....whatever is jive these days. Georgia cost me a game when I picked them against South Carolina in Week 2. I'm thinking at the end of the year Georgia will be saying, "well, at least we aren't Auburn". Georgia has hope, but I'm still pissed at them. Alabama - 27 Georgia 20 Wisconsin beats the 7 1/2 point spread against Iowa, a team in turmoil. Sure Wisconsin has looked bad at times but Iowa has looked worse....on and off the field. Kentucky VS. Arkansas (-7) A great game. I don't know who will win, I just wanted to point out that you should try and watch it. Ah, what the hell, another faky.....Arkansas by 14 because McFadden will be angry after last week's loss to Alabama and Kentucky will be put back on planet earth...right around SEC Country! That's how it'll be played out on CBS anyways and by SEC fans too. Perhaps it's true, for now. Washington VS. UCLA (-7) Washington was only 3 1/2 point underdogs against Ohio State, a game they lead at half time. Now they are 7 point underdogs to UCLA, a team who just lost to UTAH by 38. What the fuck? Also, Washington beat UCLA by 10 last year, without Freshman sensation Jake Locker. I'd bet my retirement money on this one. That's imagining I have retirement money to bet within the first place.
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