I was originally going to submit an article titled "An Angry Michigan Rant 15 Years in the Making," about all of the disappointment I have felt in my years as a Michigan fan, but for some reason, that anger in me has mostly subsided and now changed to disbelief.

Unlike most people who experience the disbelief first and the anger after, I was angry at first and somehow got it out of my system very quickly.

Maybe it's because I'm so used to these kinds of crushing disappointments, particularly in the month of September, which good old Lloyd has a hard time escaping unscathed almost every year.

Anyway, the night after it happened, I woke up at about 4 a.m. in a sleepy haze and my focus immediately shifted back to the game.

"Did that really happen? Did Michigan really just lose to Appalachain State?"

Then I fell asleep and woke back up to go to my mindless part-time job in one of the worst moods I'd ever been in.

Then I thought more about the game, and I still couldn't believe it. Still can't now.

The crazy thing about all this is, I knew Appalachain State was a solid team, better than most MAC teams UM usually plays, and a team tailor-made to UM fits.

But to actually lose the game? To a team that needed a miracle intercepted fluke 2-point conversion to beat the Mighty Paladins of Furman a little while ago? A team that plays something called Lenoir-Rhyne this coming Saturday? Unreal.

But trust me, I've pinched myself several times I haven't woke up, so it is very, very real. Now, let me talk about why it happened and where Michigan goes from here.

How it happened:

First and foremost, the most blame goes to Lloyd Carr and his staff. He has a history of struggling against far inferior opponents. He only beat a 5-6 Utah team 10-7 one year in an ugly game that almost was a loss. He only beat a bad San Diego State team 24-21 as well. Last year Ball State of all teams lost 34-26 to the Wolverines, but had a chance to tie it deep in UM territory late.

The reason why these close calls and now this loss keep happening is the lack of gameplanning by Carr and company.

UM has a habit of not wanting to show things to their lesser opponents, so they basically use about 10% of the playbook against these teams, or at least that's what it seems like. Stretch play left, stretch play left, short pass, throw in a couple straightforward bombs to Manningham, rinse, lather, repeat, throw the clothes in the dryer and call it a day.

The only problem with that philosophy is the fact that UM has a SMALL playbook to begin with. USC and App. State both said after their wins that they knew what UM was running because of the simplicity of their playbooks.

Oh, and then there's the other problem: the small and unimaginative plays in the playbook do not lend well to a comeback effort.

UM rarely falls 14 points behind like they did to App. State, and no one ever expected that to happen. Had UM stayed close, they could have kept running the ball and pummeled the tiny App. State D-line with ease.

Instead, they took to the air, where Chad Henne had a terrible day. Henne made mistakes you would expect a freshman to make, and certainly not a 4-year starter.

Scott Loeffler has been praised as a great QB coach, but his protege Henne has the same problems the infamous John Navarre had, starting with his tendency to lock on to receivers.

I know what you're thinking, however: Michigan scored enough points to win! It wasn't the offense's fault!

Wrong. They scored 32 against a team that was completely out-matched in size that they should have scored at will on.

And most disconcerting was that they again couldn't get key first downs when they needed them. That falls on offensive coordinator Mike DeBord. It's the same problem UM has had in all their close losses, whether they be the bevy of OSU games or the Rose Bowl 1-point loss to Texas: they can't ever call the right play needed to get a first down.

The offensive coaching was downright brutal.

Of course, the defense was even worse, for the first half, anyway. But that half was so bad that it ended up costing them the game.

When I picked UM to win the Big Ten (and don't laugh, but they still might as the defense gels), I did so on the premise that the defense wasn't as bad as people were saying.

It's not like they lack talent. Their entire D-line is loaded with 4 and 5-stars, nothing less, and the back end of the defense has some experienced players.

But Appalachain State had a game plan tailor made to take advantage of the weaknesses UM had at positions of inexperience and to attack the obvious holes in UM's zone defenses.

ASU QB Armanti Edwards said they looked at film and saw huge holes in the middle of the field, and that's exactly what they had all day. It's something UM fans have been seeing for years.

We thought Ron English had solved that problem as the new coordinator last year, but apparently not, and the young players messed up on several occasions early leading to big gains.

Once they settled in and English made a couple nice substitutions, they shut ASU down. But then the offense's problems cropped back up again and history was made.

The Immediate Future:

I'd say UM is a great bet to bounce back next week, but that would be ignoring the fact that Oregon is another team with the perfect mix of talent to confuse the hell out of UM's defense and put up tons of points en route to a victory.

Oregon has the same style as ASU only with more talent, not to mention a bigger, tougher, faster defense that can get in Chad Henne's face.

I am most concerned about Dennis Dixon and the spread offense, however, and especially Oregon's coaches.

Last time UM went to Autzen, the Ducks blitzed UM with the perfect storm of play-calling, tearing up huge chunks of yards by calling THE EXACT RIGHT PLAYS AT THE EXACT RIGHT TIMES and jumping out to a lead UM couldn't overcome.

That couldn't definitely happen this week with UM's young defense. If it does, UM will be staring down the barrel of a 5-loss season again and Carr might finally be forced out, or at least we'd all hope.

But then again, UM is dangerous when in an underdog role, and Mike Hart could chew up huge yards on the Duck defense like Houston did on the ground last week.

Expect a shootout and an exciting, close game. If UM wins, they have a real shot at getting hot, hot, hot (ahem), and making a run at the Big Ten title.

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UM plays well against the pro-style sets of Wisconsin and Penn State, and should do well once Big Ten season hits as always.

The Long-Term Future:

Here in southeast Michigan, everyone wants Lloyd Carr fired. Okay, everyone under the age of 60 who understands modern-day college football does.

The game has passed him by. New offense and exotic defenses expose Carr's schemes for their simplicity and make every game against a decent team a losable one.

Most infuriating is the way Carr treated the loss, however. His press conference sounded the same way it does after every loss. No fire, no vigor, no anger, nothing. Just lots of use of his favorite damage control spin-friendly word: "disappointment."

Never mind the fact that fans wait 8 months every year for the season to start and another shot at a title only to see it go up in flames most years before the leaves in change color.

Carr doesn't show any empathy for the Michigan fans who have been terribly "disappointed" far too many times to count in recent years, and that's what annoys people the most. There's nothing in Carr's demeanor or actions to suggest he has learned from his mistakes and that's the scary part.

So there you have it. All the credit in the world goes to Appalachian State.

Ohio State, Michigan State, and even Penn State fans have reason to be giddy over the outcome (or angry, considering what this does for the Big Ten's perception nationally. Penn State fans seem to be the happiest considering UM has beaten them 8 straight from what I've seen on youtube.com and from their "F Michigan" chants while watching the end of the game).

But those fans should also be aware that there is an excellent chance that UM will beat them this season (okay, except OSU. Well maybe not, I don't know, the law of averages is a good law to have on your side. Right? Hmmm), because the Wolverines are still an immensely talented team with as good a shot of winning the conference as anyone.

If the coaches get out of their way, that is. We'll find out soon enough.

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JEH45 said:

	Nick: No comments re the game. Your coach is my favorite coach if you catch my meaning. Unfortunately any one of us who are sports fans can feel your pain. Been there. Still suffering from the Debacle in the Desert, and the subsequent flight home to South Florida. Would tell you good luck, but wouldn't mean it, except of course against the Irish.
	report abuse vote down vote up

September 04, 2007
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