Lets take a look at the just completed 2006/07 NBA season and how certain teams finished in the standings. The Memphis Grizzles finished with a 22-60 record for the leagues overall worst record. Right ahead (or is that behind?) of them were the Boston Celtics with a “stunning” 24-58 record followed by Milwaukee with a 28-54 record. Now lets look at the actual draft order for this season. The first pick was Portland with a 32-50 record followed by Seattle at 31-51 followed by Atlanta at 30-52. It wasn’t until the 4th pick when the team with the worst record in the league, Memphis got to choose, then Boston picked 5th.

Now it doesn’t take a “Rocket Scientist” to deduct that there is something drastically wrong with this picture? It is the current “weighted lottery” system that the NBA has instituted best, where each of the 14 teams that don’t make the play-offs are given a weighted chance of obtaining the 1st pick of the draft. My question is “WHY?” Is the system that is in place by the MLB, NFL, and the NHL, where the team with the worst record over the regular season receives the next years number one pick that bad that it can’t be use in the NBA? It really boggles the mind that the NBA owners, or is it Commissioner David Stern feel that by simply awarding the team with the worst record the first selection of the draft, is such a “Bad thing”? Do they feel that teams will just go berserk somehow and tank the entire season? Why is the NBA so different from the other leagues that, that possibility (tanking games) is such a real threat that this current fiasco is somehow better? I just don’t know.

What I do know, however is that over the past 6 seasons, the team with the overall worse record in the NBA has only “lucked” into the number 1 pick twice. The first was in 2003 when Cleveland tied with Denver for the worst record and selected some guy named Lebron James, and then again in 2004 when the Orlando Magic drafted Dwight Howard. So based on this scenario, I don’t believe that they current formula is working. In the 2006 draft, just like this season, with the Grizzles getting the 4th pick, the Portland Trailblazers finished with the worst record, and got the 4th pick for their trouble and Toronto who finished with the 5th worst record got the number 1 pick. I do honestly believe that this is one of the main factors that you see the same teams year after year in the NBA draft lottery. Even though with only 5 starters and a 12-man roster, one or two good drafts should be enough to turn a team around. At least it was back prior to the current draft process.

My suggestion would be either one of 2 options, either do the same as the other professional leagues and let the team with the worst record receive the number 1 pick and cascade to the NBA champion picking last, or, in order to appease the nay-Sayers who claim that this simple process only promotes the “tanking” of games to get the number one spot, then take the teams with the 4 worst records, regardless of their conference, and have the “weighted” lottery drawing for only those 4 teams and the team that wins the lotto drawing receives the number 1 pick, then the remaining 3 teams are ranked according to record by how bad their record is. This would guarantee the teams with the worst record no worse than the 2nd pick in the draft and every one else is ranked according to record, with the same tie-breaking scenario as currently exists.

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Lloyds Apple said:

I hear what you are saying and you make some good points. My main argument, aside maybe from the tanking games thing, is that it's fun. When the Orlando Magic, who barely missed the playoffs, got Shaq with the first pick, that was a fun thing to see. And no, I was not a Magic fan. With the NFL, one guy does not make as big of a difference. Not with a Reggie Bush. Not with a Vince Young. Definitely not with a Mario Williams. Hell just look at the Celtics. They were so devastated they said, "screw it, let's go with a 32 year old shooting guard instead of the 5th pick." There are no Greg Oden or Kevin Durant potential impact comparisons that can be made. Your last resolution may be best, where the top 4 teams have a chance to get lucky. Personally, I like the current system, even though it can be incredibly unfair. While #5 pick Jeff Green clearly does not have as much upside as Greg Oden, it's not that clear every year. Look at Michael Jordan. Look at Dwayne Wade. Michael Redd was taken in the 2nd round. And the list goes on.

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July 11, 2007
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